PredictionMarketPulse
The intelligence layer for the US prediction market ecosystem — partnership announcements, licensing activity, and event contract filings
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Prediction Market Regulatory Guide
How US prediction markets are structured — the regulators, the entity types, and how they connect.
The Regulators
CFTC
Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Role
The primary federal regulator of the U.S. derivatives markets, including futures, options on futures, and many swaps.
Responsibilities
Oversees trading to deter fraud, manipulation, abusive practices, and systemic risk, and to help ensure markets are fair, transparent, and financially sound.
NFA
National Futures Association
Role
A CFTC-designated self-regulatory organization (SRO) for derivatives intermediaries such as FCMs, introducing brokers, commodity pool operators, and swap firms.
Responsibilities
Sets and enforces rules for its members, conducts examinations and audits, monitors financial and compliance requirements, and runs registration and background-screening functions for many CFTC registrants.
Market Participants/Designations
FCM
Futures Commission Merchant
A firm that facilitates customer access to futures and options markets (and certain swaps or event contracts), accepts customer funds to margin those positions, and is subject to oversight by both the CFTC and NFA.
Examples
PrizePicks (Performance Predictions II), Robinhood Derivatives
DCM
Designated Contract Market
A CFTC-regulated exchange (board of trade) where standardized futures, options on futures, and certain swaps or event contracts are listed and traded.
Examples
CME, Kalshi, Polymarket US (QCX), Crypto.com (CDNA)
DCO
Derivatives Clearing Organization
A CFTC-registered clearinghouse that clears and settles trades—often those executed on DCMs—and manages the associated margin and counterparty risk.
Examples
CME Clearing, Kalshi Klear, Polymarket Clearing (QC Clearing)
IB
Introducing Broker
A CFTC-regulated intermediary, registered with the NFA, that solicits or accepts customer orders but does not hold customer funds; instead, it "introduces" those accounts to an FCM or DCM who carries the positions.
Examples
Fanatics (via Paragon Global Markets), DraftKings Predictions
Filing Concepts
Filing overview
Regulated US exchanges must file new event contracts with the CFTC (e.g. each team's games, weekly economic releases, hourly price checkpoints, etc.) before listing them for trading. Each filing specifies the contract's terms — how it settles, when it trades, position limits, and more — subject to CFTC rules and the exchange's rulebook.
Template
Reusable contract pattern with placeholders
A contract pattern with placeholders that the exchange fills in when listing specific markets. Instead of filing each individual market as its own CFTC submission, an exchange files the template once — and every market listed from that template inherits the same terms.
Why templates exist
Event contracts tied to recurring real-world occurrences (each team's games, weekly economic releases, hourly price checkpoints) would otherwise require an individual filing for every instance. A single templated filing establishes the contract structure once and the exchange lists each specific instance as it comes up — without re-filing for every team or every week. It's labor-saving for exchanges and review-efficient for the CFTC.
Placeholder syntax across exchanges
Different exchanges use different notations for the same underlying mechanic:
- [Team Name]CME Group (CME/CBOT/NYMEX/COMEX) — square brackets
- <team>Kalshi — angle brackets
- {event}Polymarket (QCEX), Gemini (GMNI) — curly braces
Propagation
When an exchange amends a template, every market listed from that template inherits the amendment. A change to the "Event Contract on [Team Name] Pro Baseball Game" template affects every MLB team's game markets at once — no per-team re-filing needed.
Example
CME's Event Contract on [Team Name] Pro Baseball Game template generates markets like Yankees Pro Baseball Game, Dodgers Pro Baseball Game, and so on — one per MLB team, without CME filing 30 separate contracts with the CFTC.
See how DCMs, DCOs, FCMs, and platforms connect
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Market Structure Flow
How trades move through the prediction markets ecosystem
Customer
Individual Trader
IB / Non-Clearing FCM / TSP
Access Point
FCM
Clearing & Custody
DCM
Exchange/Market
DCO
Settlement
Introducing Broker
Solicits customers but doesn't hold funds
Futures Commission Merchant
Accepts and holds customer funds for trading
Tech Service Provider
Provides technology platform and services
Note on Multi-Role Entities
Some organizations may serve multiple roles simultaneously. For example, CME functions as an FCM, DCM, and DCO. The flow shown represents the logical progression of a trade through the system, even when roles are consolidated within a single entity.
In certain prediction market structures, introducing intermediaries may operate without a separate FCM because customer clearing is handled directly by the exchange or its clearing organization.
Try trading with our simulator
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Launch SimulatorPartnership Tracker
Summary of prediction market partnerships since 2025.
Last updated:
Entity Filings
CFTC and NFA prediction market designations, registrations, and applications.
This tracker aims for comprehensive coverage of CFTC-designated exchanges (DCMs), registered clearinghouses (DCOs), and NFA-registered intermediaries (IBs, FCMs). Some listed entities may operate in adjacent markets (e.g., crypto derivatives) and have not announced event contract offerings. New to these terms? See our Regulatory Guide.
Last updated:
Event Contracts
Before a prediction market exchange can offer a new contract, it must be self-certified or approved by the CFTC. This tracker covers event contract filings across all licensed exchanges.
To learn more about how exchanges file contracts, see Filing Concepts in our Regulatory Guide.
Data includes filings classified as Event Category or containing "Event Contract" in the product name. There may be a delay between the submission date, certification date, and posting date on the CFTC's website.
Some exchanges (notably Crypto.com / CDNA) file umbrella frameworks covering a class of events — sports, entertainment, awards — rather than individual contracts. The specific markets listed under these frameworks are surfaced only in the exchange's own app, not in CFTC's filing record. This tracker shows the regulatory filings; for live market inventory on those exchanges, check the exchange directly.
Need alerts when new contracts are published or updated? Contact us →Across all exchanges · Last updated
Filing Statuses
Certified — Exchange self-certified the contract with the CFTC under existing rules. Most common path — the exchange files the contract and it becomes effective unless the CFTC objects.
Approved — CFTC explicitly reviewed and approved the contract. A more rigorous path than self-certification, typically used for novel or complex contract types.
Withdrawn — Exchange voluntarily pulled the filing before or after certification. May indicate a strategic pivot, regulatory concern, or product consolidation.
Disapproved — CFTC reviewed and rejected the contract. Rare — most issues are resolved before a formal disapproval.
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Ecosystem Network Map
Interactive visualization of prediction market partnerships and regulatory relationships.
About PredictionMarketPulse
PredictionMarketPulse is an independent intelligence resource tracking the US prediction market ecosystem — partnership announcements, licensing activity, and event contract filings across every regulated exchange.
We monitor CFTC filings, NFA registrations, and industry partnerships so you don't have to. The site is updated regularly as new activity is detected.
About the Creators
Josh Pearl
Josh has spent over a decade working in regulated gambling, spanning online horse racing, sports wagering, online casino, and paid fantasy sports. He previously led new-state launch efforts at Penn Interactive, working closely on legislative, regulatory, and operational considerations.
He now consults with regulated gambling companies across a wide range of initiatives. Josh has followed prediction markets closely since early 2025 out of personal interest and has no business affiliation with any entities participating in this space.
LinkedIn ProfileGrant Hartman
Grant works as Director of Client Engagement at Chariot Solutions, where he works closely with clients building software in complex, highly regulated markets, including gaming, sports betting, and prediction markets. Through this work, he's spent years close to projects shaped by regulation, incentives, and technology.
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